Governments appeal to their citizens to leave the territory of Ukraine

 Over the past few days, more than ten countries have issued recommendations to their citizens to evacuate from the territory of Ukraine. Among them were Belarus, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Serbia, China, Kazakhstan, Egypt, and the United States and Bulgaria. India, on the other hand, recommends avoiding travel to and within this country.

As you can imagine, such steps were taken due to the threat of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. The governments of several of these countries have decided to warn their citizens against the threat to their security resulting from staying in this country immediately after rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities, which the Russian side carried out in response to the explosion that destroyed a fragment of the Crimean Bridge exactly on the 70th birthday of the Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The US Embassy in Kyiv issued a recommendation to leave Ukraine on October 10, the day of Russian retaliation for damage to the Crimean Bridge. The statement reads:

 "Russia has launched attacks against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure as well as government facilities in Kiev and elsewhere. Russia's continued attacks in Ukraine pose a direct threat to the civilian population and civil infrastructure. The US Embassy is urging US citizens to take refuge on the ground and leave Ukraine now while it is still safe, using private ground transportation."

The Uzbek embassy in Kiev also, shortly after the missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and the Ukrainian economic infrastructure, issued an order that the citizens of that country refrain from traveling to Ukraine and those who are there leave for their own safety. The content of the statement reads:

 "In connection with the appeal of the citizens of the Republic of Uzbekistan regarding the security of entry and stay on the territory of Ukraine, in the context of increased missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, the Embassy again urges Poles to refrain from traveling to Ukraine until the end of the conflict. Moreover, in view of the escalation of the situation on the fronts and the high probability of continuation of rocket and artillery strikes throughout Ukraine, we are asking our countrymen to leave the country for their personal safety."

On 10 October, the Kazakh embassy in Kiev also called for its citizens to leave Ukraine. In their statement on the Telegram channel, they wrote:

" In connection with the intensification of attacks on civil infrastructure and state facilities throughout Ukraine, the Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan calls on its citizens to refrain from traveling to Ukraine, and people in this country not to disregard anti-aircraft alarms and remain in hideouts and air raid shelters. [...] The embassy calls on the citizens of Kazakhstan to leave the territory of Ukraine as much as possible."

The Chinese decided to warn their citizens against the threat of an escalation of the conflict also on October 10. At that time, the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in Kiev advised citizens of their country not to go to this country and reminded those who are already there to take refuge in safe places. She also called for leaving Ukraine as soon as conditions are favorable. In the statement of 10/10/2022, we read:

 "For some time now, our fellow citizens have become less cautious in responding to sirens warning against air attacks. However, given the heavy attacks going on at the moment, please make sure they enter the shelters at the first siren sounds and carry rainfall supplies with them. Again, please do not stay in the country unless it is urgent and necessary and leave the country as soon as it is safe to do so."

On Saturday, October 15, the Embassy of the People's Republic of China again called on Chinese citizens to strengthen their precautionary measures and evacuate the country.

Cui Heng from the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University, explaining the precautionary measures taken on Sunday, October 16, said that "after the attack on the Crimean Bridge, civil infrastructure became the target of an armed conflict, which is a clear escalation on the battlefield," and the evacuation of Chinese citizens is "an early a warning taken […] to avoid damage to the property and lives of Chinese citizens ”.

On Friday, October 14, the Egyptian embassy in Kiev called for evacuation from Ukraine. As reported by the Egyptian website "Sada El Balad":

 The Egyptian Embassy in Kiev on Friday asked all Egyptians to leave Ukraine as soon as possible via safe roads, in the west of Ukraine, in connection with the recent war events in that country. The embassy called on the Egyptians to avoid all dangerous regions and be careful when traveling on the roads.

Serbia temporarily closed its embassy in Kiev on Sunday, October 16. In a statement on that day, it was stated:

 "The Embassy of the Republic of Serbia in Ukraine has been temporarily closed to ensure the safety of personnel who will continue to work from Belgrade until the conditions for return to Ukraine are met."

It also added that on February 13 a recommendation was issued for Serb citizens to leave the territory of Ukraine:

" The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Serbia reminds all interested parties that on February 13 it issued a recommendation to citizens of the Republic of Serbia staying in Ukraine to consider the possibility of temporarily leaving the territory of the country, and all those who planned to travel to Ukraine were advised to postpone their departure."

The Embassy of Turkmenistan in Kiev, in turn, posted an appeal on its website that reads:

 ATTENTION TURKMENISTAN CITIZENS! The Embassy of Turkmenistan in Ukraine appeals to all Turkmen citizens currently staying in Ukraine or planning to come to Ukraine from abroad due to the ongoing military situation in Ukraine, as well as the threat of missile attacks throughout the country! To ensure the personal safety of citizens, the Embassy calls on Turkmen citizens to leave Ukraine through neighboring countries and to refrain from coming to Ukraine until martial law is lifted.

On October 11, the Tajik embassy appealed on its Facebook profile:

 "Attention Tajik citizens! In view of the increased attacks on critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine and threats to personal security, the Embassy of the Republic of Tajikistan in Ukraine is asking the citizens of the Republic of Tajikistan to refrain from traveling to Ukraine until the situation has stabilized. Citizens currently residing in Ukraine are advised to strictly follow the rules of martial law and the instructions of local authorities regarding personal security, and to leave the territory of Ukraine if possible."

The Indian embassy in Kiev also issued a serious warning to its citizens in connection with the escalation of the war in Ukraine. We read in it:

 "Due to the current escalation of hostilities in Ukraine, Indian citizens are advised to avoid all irrelevant travel to and within Ukraine. They must strictly follow the safety and security guidelines issued by the Ukrainian government and local authorities. Indian citizens are asked to inform the embassy of the status of their presence in Ukraine to enable the embassy to reach them if necessary."

As the Wirtualna Polska website notes, however, referring to the unreliable former commander of the Polish Land Forces, General Waldemar Skrzypczak, these countries, pressing on their citizens to evacuate from Ukraine, are guided by fears of an escalation of the war by introducing nuclear weapons into the conflict. The former head of the National Security Bureau, General Koziej, believes in a similar way, which in turn specifically explains the evacuation of the Chinese from Ukraine by the fear of using nuclear weapons.

The use of nuclear weapons, however, is only one of several hypotheses as to what the governments of these countries were guided by when they suggested to their citizens that they should leave the territory of Ukraine. Another possible reason was the fear of an attack on Ukraine from the north by Russian troops or the combined forces of Russia and Belarus.

In addition to these more sinister hypotheses, there is also a much more moderate possibility, namely that these countries recommended their citizens to evacuate simply for the reasons stated in the statements, namely that the Russians attacked Ukrainian cities in retaliation for the destruction of the Crimean Bridge and the fear of continuing these activities, i.e. the danger of losing their health or life caused the cautious reaction of the governments of these dozen countries.

However, ignoring the reason for the above-mentioned countries to evacuate their citizens from Ukraine, there is no doubt that we are dealing with an exacerbation of the conflict, and as Ukrainian progresses on the North-Eastern front of the war, the likelihood of both opening a new front from Belarus and the use of weapons increases. nuclear. As reported in his Sunday text in the Wall Street Journal, Putin began to transfer both the Russian land forces and the air force to Belarus. Since Alexander Lukashenka already in February allowed the Russians to attack Ukraine from the Belarusian side, it is possible that this time Moscow also wants to tie up Ukrainian troops in the north in order to distract them from the country's territory in the North-East, where Kyiv's troops are clearly successful.

The American service notes that the Belarusian leader is trying his best to stand up to the Russian side, however, Moscow's pressure is growing, considering that the Russians have helped Belarusians in recent years when Belarus was driven into the vortex of the revolution and during the border conflict with Poland for a year later, Minsk may owe the Russians a favor. This favor may be the participation of Belarusian troops in the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

If there is an aggression on the Ukrainian state from the north, we can conclude with a high degree of probability that these actions will extend the armed conflict for another month and the predictions of Kyryło Budanov, the head of intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, that the Ukrainian-Russian war ended with Kiev's victory in the spring of 2023, they will certainly not work.