The beginning of 2025 brought a series of extremely intense events on the Sun that could have serious consequences for the Earth's technological infrastructure. In just 24 hours, three powerful X-class flares were observed, the strongest of which reached X1.8, posing a significant threat to communication and energy systems on Earth.
The latest, most intense flare was recorded on January 4, 2025 at 12:48 UTC by NOAA/GOES-16. The event, which lasted from 12:35 to 12:56 UTC, came from active region AR 3947, which had already produced two other powerful X-class flares earlier that day, with magnitudes of X1.2 and X1.1.
During this event, a coronal mass ejection (CME) was also observed moving at a speed of 314 kilometers per second, but due to the current location of the active region relative to Earth, it does not pose a direct threat to our planet.
Particularly worrying is the fact that the AR 3947 region shows signs of further development, expanding its surface and gaining additional intermediate spots. Experts predict that in the coming days, as this region rotates towards Earth, we can expect more intense flares, which this time may be directed directly towards our planet. Currently, there are as many as 11 regions containing sunspots on the side of the Sun visible from Earth, which indicates high activity of our star.
The forecast for the coming days is not optimistic. Experts predict continued high solar activity, with a 55 percent chance of M-class flares and a 10-15 percent chance of more X-class flares. There is also a risk of an S1-class solar storm by January 6, as well as periodic G1-class geomagnetic disturbances over the next two days, caused by a combination of the effects of the CME and the high-velocity flux from the solar corona with positive polarity.
These events come just days after an unusually strong G4 geomagnetic storm, which briefly reached G5 intensity on January 1, 2025. It was caused by Earth colliding with two coronal solar mass ejections that were released on December 29 of the previous year.
Radio systems in the South American, South Atlantic and African regions are particularly susceptible to disruptions caused by the current solar activity. Observations by a spacecraft located at the L1 Lagrange point, about 1.5 million kilometres from Earth, have already confirmed the first effects of this increased solar activity.
The current situation requires special attention from operators of satellite systems and terrestrial telecommunications infrastructure. There is a real risk of disruptions in the operation of GPS systems, radio communications and power grids. Scientists emphasize that such intense solar activity in a short period is a relatively rare phenomenon and requires careful monitoring in order to minimize potential threats to terrestrial technology.
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