For years, the ability to assemble the mind in a computer has been the main topic of science fiction, but will we ever get a chance to do it for real? We often imagine that human consciousness is simply the input and output of electrical signals in a network of computing units that is comparable to a computer. The reality, however, is much more complex. For starters, we don't know how much information the human brain can hold.
Two years ago, a team from the Allen Institute for Brain Science in Seattle (USA) mapped the three-dimensional structure of all neurons (brain cells) found in one cubic millimeter of a mouse brain, which is considered a remarkable event. In this tiny cube of brain tissue, the size of a grain of sand, scientists counted over 100,000. neurons and over a billion connections between them. They were able to write relevant information to the computer, including the shape and configuration of each neuron and connection, which required two petabytes or two million gigabytes of memory. To do this, their automated microscopes had to continuously collect 100 million images of 25,000 sections of a miniature sample over several months.
If that's what it takes to store complete physical information about neurons and their connections in one cubic millimeter of a mouse brain, you might imagine that collecting this information from the human brain wouldn't be easy. However, extracting and storing data isn't the only problem. For a computer to resemble the brain's mode of operation, it must have access to all stored information in a very short time. The information must be stored in random access memory (RAM) and not on traditional hard drives. But if we tried to store the amount of collected data in a computer's RAM, it would take 12.5 times the capacity of the largest single-memory computer ever created.
The human brain contains approximately 100 billion neurons (the same number of stars as can be counted in the Milky Way) - a million times more than a cubic millimeter of the mouse brain. And the estimated number of connections is a staggering ten to the 15th power. Ten and 15 zeros - a number comparable to single grains of sand contained in a two-meter layer of sand on 1 km of beach.
Even if we don't know how much information the human brain can store, we can imagine how difficult it will be to transfer it to a computer. The first step is to translate the information into code that the computer can read and use after it has been written. Any mistake in this can be deadly. A simple rule of thumb for information storage is to make sure you have enough space to store all the information needed for your migration before you begin. Otherwise, you will have to know exactly the order of importance of information stored and how it is organized, which is far from the case of brain data.
As our civilization grows and technology advances, new threats are also emerging. The emergence of new lethal weapons, the development of artificial intelligence and robotics, social stratification, lust for money and power, as well as the destruction of our planet, and the excessive extraction of natural resources are just some of the most serious examples. So it should not be surprising that scientists try to predict when our end will come and directly warn us about the potential destruction of humanity.
Dr. Fergus Simpson, a mathematician at the Institute of Cosmology at the University of Barcelona, made his own calculations to estimate the risk of the demise of the human species. His calculations were based on the so-called doom argument that can predict the future size of the human species based on the total number of people born to date.
His calculations show that about 100 billion people have been born so far, and in the future, a similar number of representatives of our species will be born before our civilization ends. Simpson estimated that each year there is over a 0.2% chance of a global catastrophe and a 13% chance that humanity will not live to see the next century.
The mathematician's predictions, however, are quite optimistic compared to the visions of other researchers. For example, Sir Martin Rees, a British astronomer, and cosmologist predict that the human species has only a 50% chance of surviving this century. Dr. Fergus Simpson believes that humanity should urgently take action to mitigate global threats. In his opinion, we may not be able to avoid certain events, but we are certainly able to delay their occurrence.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1611.03072v1.pdf
The prominent American businessman Elon Musk, the founder of PayPal, Space X, and Tesla Motors, stated that artificial intelligence can pose a serious threat to humanity. He even called the work on this "demon-calling".
Already a few years ago, when AI was not as advanced as it is today, during a speech at MIT, a businessman was asked what he thought about the prospects of creating artificial intelligence. Musk said this area needed special care as AI could be "the main threat to human existence."
Elon Musk said he was willing to support the need to regulate this issue at the national and international levels. This should give us confidence that we are not making a terrible mistake.
Earlier, other experts also concluded that artificial intelligence can be very dangerous. Physicist Nick Bostrom has recognized that artificial intelligence can be even more dangerous than nuclear weapons.
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